New heavy vehicle registrations dropped just under 8.0 per cent for 2019 compared with the previous calendar year according to the Australian Road Transport Suppliers Association (ARTSA).
This followed a two-year run of annual increases in new registrations of around 15 per cent per annum. Total new registrations for 2019 were close to 37,500 new units, off a historic high of 40,600 in 2018. The 2019 year was the second highest total for new vehicle registrations since ARTSA Data analytics began analysing the National Exchange of Vehicle and Driver Information System (NEVDIS) registration data in 2014.
Data from the 'never registered Vehicle Identification Numbers (VIN)' in the NEVDIS registration data, according to ARTSA Data analytics, suggest there are further falls to come.
The pool of never registered VINs (i.e. the VINs taken out during the build phase of registration) has been falling for both trucks (prime movers and rigids) and trailers since the middle of 2019.
The reduction in the never registered VIN pool for trucks has been 17 per cent in the last quarter of 2019 and the trailer never registered VIN pool has shrunk by 28 per cent since peaking at end of March 2019. While there are numerous factors that influence these totals, they are a fair indication that new vehicle work in the pipeline is falling for both trucks and trailers.
The March quarter new registration data is historically the slowest quarter of the year, so this may not provide much of a lead as to whether this negative trend is being sustained. The data at end June will provide a more accurate guide but for now there is no question that the new vehicle registration data is pointing to a slowdown of significant proportion having reached new highs in the previous two years.
ARTSA Data analytics can supply a range of custom reports that provide considerable detail by manufacturer, but can also be analysed by State, by year and other variables such as registration category, VIN, postcode, age and more. Data is analysed quarterly and the data series has history back to the beginning of 2014.
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